Wednesday, January 12, 2005

All aboard!!:The decline of the dollar.

Investor Warren Buffet has apparently been "bearish" on the dollar for the better part of a year.

Says Buffett: "The rest of the world owns $10 trillion of us, or $3 trillion net." That is, U.S. claims on foreign assets run to only $7 trillion. "If lots of people try to leave the market, we'll have chaos because they won't get through the door." In a nutshell, the trade deficit is forcing foreign central banks to ingest U.S. currency at a rate approaching $2 billion a day. Buffett continues: "If we have the same policies, the dollar will go down."
Thanks to Mr.Buffet for providing actual numbers that seem to mean something in terms of exactly how much trouble is ahead.

Is this groundswell of media attention the people starting to get up out of their seats to head for the door of the burning hall? If this thinking catches on 2005 (and 2006, 2007, 2030) is going to royally suck. The kicker is that if this notion does take off, it's probably too late to do anything. That is, moving dollars overseas will not help.

What's a guy to do? Buffet doesn't say, he does say that if you're not inflation protected ( and that does not mean US Treasuries) you're screwed:

"But here's a long-term perspective. He says he may hold foreign currencies "for years and years." And he says that the electorate of the U.S. may be strongly tempted to get out of hock by inflating away the country's dollar debts."

...it just keeps getting better....

At this time I am reminded of the ancient Chinese proverb/curse:
"May you live in interesting times"






1 Comments:

Blogger The Angry Engineer said...

You beat me to the punch - I've had a link to Newsmax sitting around for a week that covers the same Buffett comments.

Lots of folks think that Soros threw himself behind Kerry not because he's a flaming liberal, but because he's not as well-hedged as Buffett and realized what Bush might do to the value of the greenback.

9:30 PM  

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