Monday, December 20, 2004

Fed to boost interest rates to stabilize dollar

I'm certainly jumping to conclusions here but this news just reinforces my thought that the real reason the fed continues to raise rates is not because the economy is doing well. The real reason the fed continues to raise interest rates is to make the dollar more attractive to investors. The dollar continues to decline because of our trade deficit and will continue to do so unless the rate of savings or the rate of foreign investment goes up. Of course, we could also boost exports but I don't see that as all that likely. After all, what would we export?
Fed Chairman Lacker out of N.C. had these thoughts:
"Even if inflation remains low and constant, as we would like, we may still need to move the Fed funds rate fairly often," Lacker said."

"Lacker said that higher rates may be delayed if businesses seek to absorb the higher labor costs by reducing their profits."

"
He noted that the Fed monetary policy is also capable of preventing the weaker dollar from boosting inflation.

"Monetary policy is capable of preventing oil price increases, or changes in the foreign exchange value of the dollar for that matter, from showing through to the underlying inflation rate," he said.

Lacker said consumer spending should continue to expand "at something near the strong pace we have been seeing." Worries about the low savings rate "should be taken with a grain of salt" because they omit capital gains on household assets."

Oh, so people are just spending their capital gains? I guess I need me some capital gains to spend.


2 Comments:

Blogger The Angry Engineer said...

So, the question is, what's more important - cheap credit (low interest rates), or low consumer prices (reduced inflation)? Boy, that's a heck of a pickle to be in. My guess is that we'll see just enough action by the Fed to severely impact the cost of consumer credit but not enough to reverse the downward slide of the dollar (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=).

The household savings numbers don't include capital gains, eh? The S&P is up approximately 13% this year. Multiply that out through the 0.8% household savings rate and it turns into a 0.9% savings rate. Holy shit, things are a lot better than they look! Perhaps my mathematical methods are questionable, but I don't see the Fed putting forth any numbers of their own.

BTW - I heard housing starts were down something like 13% last month. I'm interested to hear how Sean Hannity spun that one.

5:08 PM  
Blogger The Angry Engineer said...

Oh, and P.S. - beer sucks, Bush rules, and the economy is doing fine.

I just wanted the honor of being the first comment troll on your blog.

6:15 PM  

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